The Former President's Ukrainian Peace Initiative Represents a Advantage to Vladimir Putin

For a brief period, Donald Trump gave the impression to embrace a resolute approach concerning Ukraine. Following issuing threats of "significant ramifications" in August if Vladimir Putin carried on hindering truce negotiations, he finally enacted substantial restrictions on the Russian primary oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This action substantially impacted the Russian leader's capacity to fund his aggression in Ukraine.

Yet, through his recently unveiled detailed peace initiative for the conflict, that was developed by both nations' officials without Ukraine's or EU participation, the former president has seemingly gone back to his pro-Putin position.

Favoring Invasion

Trump's proposal would in practice favor Putin for attacking Ukraine while putting the country's political freedom in danger. Despite bold declarations that "The nation's independence will be affirmed", large portions of the proposal effectively undermine that essential autonomy. What represents a Moscow's wish would certainly be a catastrophe for the nation.

Showing his business past, the former president persists to treat the war as a mere territorial dispute, like ceding Putin a section of Ukraine's territory will appease the leader. However, Russia's military campaign is not simply about controlling a charred area of economically weakened territory in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about Ukraine's democracy – and Putin's apparent goal to eliminate it so it no longer acts as an enticing model for the Russian people of the accountable government that his growing dictatorship denies them.

Territorial Giveaways

While maintaining in position the presently divided Ukrainian provinces of these areas, the initiative would compel Ukraine to give up all of this eastern territory. In addition to rewarding the Russian Federation with area that its military have been unable to seize in over a lengthy period of fighting, this surrender would make Ukraine's defensive positions critically weakened.

This region is the place of Ukraine's highly-touted "fortress belt", the well-established protective structures that represent a key barrier to enemy progress. The proposal would have Ukraine abandon these positions, giving Russian forces a unobstructed path to the capital should he eventually choose to restart the war.

Military Restrictions

Then, in a action that would enable additional hostilities more feasible for Russia, Trump would mandate Ukraine to cut the size of its troops from their existing large number troops to a cap of six hundred thousand. Notably, Trump's initiative imposes no such restrictions on Russia's military.

In what appears as a concession to Putin's campaign to depict Ukraine's legitimate government as Nazis, Trump's proposal states: "Every extremist doctrine and practices must be condemned and banned." Apparently to underscore this element, it requires that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in three months" of a peace deal. Meanwhile, Trump places no condition that Putin risk his dictatorship by conducting democratic processes in his own country.

Protection Guarantees

To be sure, the initiative makes the Russian Federation pledge not to "enter other states" and to "enshrine in law its position of non-violence towards the EU and Ukraine". Yet taking into account that Putin has breached comparable treaties in the past – for example the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which the Russian government pledged to respect the nation's sovereignty in exchange for relinquishing its former Soviet atomic arms, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia promised to a ceasefire and a handback of seized land in eastern Ukraine to Ukrainian control – why should anyone have confidence in this commitment now?

For this reason Ukraine has been so determined on external protection assurances. Although the plan threatens a "immediate joint military response" in case the Russian Federation renew its invasion, and states that "The nation will receive reliable defense commitments", the particulars range from vague to alarming. The initiative would not just prevent the nation Nato membership but also prohibit Nato members from positioning military personnel on the nation's land, thereby preventing the reassurance force, reportedly led by European powers, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to prevent Russia from replenishing his reduced military, re-equipping, and attacking again.

World Concern

Another supplementary accord reportedly would offer Ukraine with a alliance-like protection assurance, in which any future "serious, planned, and ongoing armed attack" by the Russian Federation on the country "will be treated as an act of war threatening the peace and security of the Western nations." This implies a military response. Yet in contrast to a strong national defense – the nation's most reliable defense against future hostilities – the credibility of the parallel accord would hinge on the commitment of Nato leaders, such as the US administration, to react with force to Putin's aggression, a response they have {not