Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few government figures or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."