From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro

Against the backdrop of the immense confusion surrounding the American military actions on Venezuela, the seizure of President Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “manage” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, a single fact remains evident – these actions create a deeply alarming precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States has a grim history of interference, invasion and occupation in the region, but the recent overnight operation saw its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” the President stated.

The move to assault another sovereign country and seize its president – only a few days after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – carries even broader implications. It should alarm us all.

Profound Uncertainty for Venezuela

Venezuelans have endured a repressive, kleptocratic and incompetent regime under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have stolen the last election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has indicated that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and dismissed rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a plausible replacement.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other elements of the decapitated regime are considerably more radical.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who was elected promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was more than posturing. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a guardian of order; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.

He believes that the US’s might allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: observe the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He asserts that Venezuelan oil means this new undertaking “won’t cost us a penny”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this unlawful assault came lacking any form of UN approval or authorization from lawmakers; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump aims not merely to stretch international norms, but to destroy them.

Set aside the signal this transmits to Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and others, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid reportedly killed 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will likely encourage additional military gambits.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

Few believe the pretext that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a small transit route for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is driven by the lure of oil as well as personal bravado, the ideology of some in his administration, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been alarmingly quiet. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode underscores the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to turn attention back home – but rising medical costs, public anxiety over the economy and distracting files make foreign conflicts more appealing.

It has been less than 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may come to rue the day if they fail to speak up today, given what – and who – could be next.